What are some common fallacies, errors, heuristics, and/or biases that result in faulty decisions? What impacts negative and errors in decision making? In addition what are the strengths of heuristics and other decision-making strategies? Please be as detailed as possible with examples to make things clear.
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Get Help Now!We’re dealing here with what’s called “decision theory.”
This is a solid, scholarly introduction that deals with some of the fallacies and problems:
http://home.abe.kth.se/~soh/decisiontheory.pdf
Brim’s simple approach looks like this:
- Identification of the problem
- Obtaining necessary information
- Production of possible solutions
- Evaluation of such solutions
- Selection of a strategy for performance
Needless to say, for each step, problems can enter in. The problem can be misconstrued, all solutions might not be considered, and our evaluation of possible outcomes can be faulty or incomplete.
Here is an interesting list of error causing events:
http://www.economypoint.org/h/human-error.html
Just a few:
We can begin with a faulty starting point – our problem and possible alternatives are misconstrued. If we define the problem incorrectly, then errors are bound to occur.
Our perceptions can be distorted through emotion, bias, etc. We do not see things as they are, but filtered through our own distorted lens.
Time critical issues lead to hasty decisions.
Fallacy of the excluded middle – we construe our choices as one extreme or the other. Either we live in opulence or in poverty – there is a third choice, of course, that of the middle class.
Politically, we might see things as extremely conservative or extremely liberal, with no middle ground possible. This occurs in many …
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